Time Series Analysis Using ARIMA Model In R (2023)

Time series data are data points collected over a period of time as a sequence of time gap. Time series data analysis means analyzing the available data to find out the pattern or trend in the data to predict some future values which will, in turn, help more effective and optimize business decisions.

Methods for time series analysis

Moreover, time series analysis can be classified as:

  • 1. Parametric and Non-parametric
  • 2. Linear and Non-linear and
  • 3. Univariate and multivariate

Techniques used for time series analysis:

  • 1. ARIMA models
  • 2. Box-Jenkins multivariate models
  • 3. Holt winters exponential smoothing (single, double and triple)

ARIMA modeling

ARIMA is the abbreviation for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average. Auto Regressive (AR) terms refer to the lags of the differenced series, Moving Average (MA) terms refer to the lags of errors and I is the number of difference used to make the time series stationary.

Assumptions of ARIMA model

  • 1. Data should be stationary – by stationary it means that the properties of the series doesn’t depend on the time when it is captured. A white noise series and series with cyclic behavior can also be considered as stationary series.
  • 2. Data should be univariate – ARIMA works on a single variable. Auto-regression is all about regression with the past values.

Steps to be followed for ARIMA modeling:

  • 1. Exploratory analysis
  • 2. Fit the model
  • 3. Diagnostic measures

The first step in time series data modeling using R is to convert the available data into time series data format. To do so we need to run the following command in R:

tsData = ts(RawData, start = c(2011,1), frequency = 12)

where RawData is the univariate data which we are converting to time series. start gives the starting time of the data, in this case, its Jan 2011. As it is a monthly data so ‘frequency=12’.

This is how the actual dataset looks like:

We can infer from the graph itself that the data points follows an overall upward trend with some outliers in terms of sudden lower values. Now we need to do some analysis to find out the exact non-stationary and seasonality in the data.

Exploratory analysis

  • 1. Autocorrelation analysis to examine serial dependence: Used to estimate which value in the past has a correlation with the current value. Provides the p,d,q estimate for ARIMA models.
  • 2. Spectral analysis to examine cyclic behavior: Carried out to describe how variation in a time series may be accounted for by cyclic components. Also referred to as a Frequency Domain analysis. Using this, periodic components in a noisy environment can be separated out.
  • 3. Trend estimation and decomposition: Used for seasonal adjustment. It seeks to construct, from an observed time series, a number of component series(that could be used to reconstruct the original series) where each of these has a certain characteristic.

Before performing any EDA on the data, we need to understand the three components of a time series data:

  • Trend: A long-term increase or decrease in the data is referred to as a trend. It is not necessarily linear. It is the underlying pattern in the data over time.
  • Seasonal: When a series is influenced by seasonal factors i.e. quarter of the year, month or days of a week seasonality exists in the series. It is always of a fixed and known period. E.g. – A sudden rise in sales during Christmas, etc.
  • Cyclic: When data exhibit rises and falls that are not of the fixed period we call it a cyclic pattern. For e.g. – duration of these fluctuations is usually of at least 2 years.

We can use the following R code to find out the components of this time series:

components.ts = decompose(tsData)plot(components.ts)

The output will look like this:

Here we get 4 components:

  • Observed – the actual data plot
  • Trend – the overall upward or downward movement of the data points
  • Seasonal – any monthly/yearly pattern of the data points
  • Random – unexplainable part of the data

Observing these 4 graphs closely, we can find out if the data satisfies all the assumptions of ARIMA modeling, mainly, stationarity and seasonality.

Next, we need to remove non-stationary part for ARIMA. For the sake of discussion here, we will remove the seasonal part of the data as well. The seasonal part can be removed from the analysis and added later, or it can be taken care of in the ARIMA model itself.

To achieve stationarity:

  • difference the data – compute the differences between consecutive observations
  • log or square root the series data to stabilize non-constant variance
  • if the data contains a trend, fit some type of curve to the data and then model the residuals from that fit
  • Unit root test – This test is used to find out that first difference or regression which should be used on the trending data to make it stationary. In Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, small p-values suggest differencing is required.

The R code for unit root test:

library("fUnitRoots")urkpssTest(tsData, type = c("tau"), lags = c("short"),use.lag = NULL, doplot = TRUE)tsstationary = diff(tsData, differences=1)plot(tsstationary)

The output will look like this:

After removing non-stationarity:

Various plots and functions that help in detecting seasonality:

  • A seasonal subseries plot
  • Multiple box plot
  • Auto correlation plot
  • ndiffs() is used to determine the number of first differences required to make the time series non-seasonal

R codes to calculate autocorrelation:


The autocorrelation function (acf()) gives the autocorrelation at all possible lags. The autocorrelation at lag 0 is included by default which always takes the value 1 as it represents the correlation between the data and themselves. As we can infer from the graph above, the autocorrelation continues to decrease as the lag increases, confirming that there is no linear association between observations separated by larger lags.

timeseriesseasonallyadjusted <- tsData- timeseriescomponents$seasonaltsstationary <- diff(timeseriesseasonallyadjusted, differences=1)

To remove seasonality from the data, we subtract the seasonal component from the original series and then difference it to make it stationary.

After removing seasonality and making the data stationary, it will look like:

Smoothing is usually done to help us better see patterns, trends in time series. Generally it smooths out the irregular roughness to see a clearer signal. For seasonal data, we might smooth out the seasonality so that we can identify the trend. Smoothing doesn’t provide us with a model, but it can be a good first step in describing various components of the series.

To smooth time series:

  • Ordinary moving average (single, centered) – at each point in time we determine averages of observed values that precede a particular time.
    To take away seasonality from a series, so we can better see a trend, we would use a moving average with a length = seasonal span. Seasonal span is the time period after which a seasonality repeats, e.g. – 12 months if seasonality is noticed every December. Thus in the smoothed series, each smoothed value has been averaged across the complete season period.
  • Exponentially weighted average – at each point of time, it applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each older datum decreases exponentially and never reaching zero.

Fit the model

Once the data is ready and satisfies all the assumptions of modeling, to determine the order of the model to be fitted to the data, we need three variables: p, d, and q which are non-negative integers that refer to the order of the autoregressive, integrated, and moving average parts of the model respectively.

To examine which p and q values will be appropriate we need to run acf() and pacf() function.

pacf() at lag k is autocorrelation function which describes the correlation between all data points that are exactly k steps apart- after accounting for their correlation with the data between those k steps. It helps to identify the number of autoregression (AR) coefficients(p-value) in an ARIMA model.

The R code to run the acf() and pacf() commands.

acf(tsstationary, lag.max=34)pacf(tsstationary, lag.max=34)

The plots will look like:

Shape of acf() to define values of p and q:
Looking at the graphs and going through the table we can determine which type of the model to select and what will be the values of p, d and q.

fitARIMA <- arima(tsData, order=c(1,1,1),seasonal = list(order = c(1,0,0), period = 12),method="ML")library(lmtest)coeftest(fitARIMA) 

order specifies the non-seasonal part of the ARIMA model: (p, d, q) refers to the AR order, the degree of difference, and the MA order.

seasonal specifies the seasonal part of the ARIMA model, plus the period (which defaults to frequency(x) i.e 12 in this case). This function requires a list with components order and period, but given a numeric vector of length 3, it turns them into a suitable list with the specification as the ‘order’.

method refers to the fitting method, which can be ‘maximum likelihood(ML)’ or ‘minimize conditional sum-of-squares(CSS)’. The default is conditional-sum-of-squares.

This is a recursive process and we need to run this arima() function with different (p,d,q) values to find out the most optimized and efficient model.

The output from fitarima() includes the fitted coefficients and the standard error (s.e.) for each coefficient. Observing the coefficients we can exclude the insignificant ones. We can use a function confint() for this purpose.
We can use a function confint() for this purpose.


Choosing the best model

R uses maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the ARIMA model. It tries to maximize the log-likelihood for given values of p, d, and q when finding parameter estimates so as to maximize the probability of obtaining the data that we have observed.

Find out Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) for a set of models and investigate the models with lowest AIC values. Try Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and investigate the models with lowest BIC values. When estimating model parameters using maximum likelihood estimation, it is possible to increase the likelihood by adding additional parameters, which may result in over fitting. The BIC resolves this problem by introducing a penalty term for the number of parameters in the model. Along with AIC and BIC, we also need to closely watch those coefficient values and we should decide whether to include that component or not according to their significance level.

Diagnostic measures

Try to find out the pattern in the residuals of the chosen model by plotting the ACF of the residuals, and doing a portmanteau test. We need to try modified models if the plot doesn’t look like white noise.

Once the residuals look like white noise, calculate forecasts.

Box-Ljung test

It is a test of independence at all lags up to the one specified. Instead of testing randomness at each distinct lag, it tests the "overall" randomness based on a number of lags, and is therefore a portmanteau test. It is applied to the residuals of a fitted ARIMA model, not the original series, and in such applications the hypothesis actually being tested is that the residuals from the ARIMA model have no autocorrelation.

R code to obtain the box test results:

acf(fitARIMA$residuals)library(FitAR)boxresult-LjungBoxTest (fitARIMA$residuals,k=2,StartLag=1)plot(boxresult[,3],main= "Ljung-Box Q Test", ylab= "P-values", xlab= "Lag")qqnorm(fitARIMA$residuals)qqline(fitARIMA$residuals)


The ACF of the residuals shows no significant autocorrelations.

The p-values for the Ljung-Box Q test all are well above 0.05, indicating “non-significance.”

The values are normal as they rest on a line and aren’t all over the place.

As all the graphs are in support of the assumption that there is no pattern in the residuals, we can go ahead and calculate the forecast.

Work flow diagram

auto.arima() function:
The forecast package provides two functions: ets() and auto.arima() for the automatic selection of exponential and ARIMA models.

The auto.arima() function in R uses a combination of unit root tests, minimization of the AIC and MLE to obtain an ARIMA model.

KPSS test is used to determine the number of differences (d) In Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm for automatic ARIMA modeling.

The p,d, and q are then chosen by minimizing the AICc. The algorithm uses a stepwise search to traverse the model space to select the best model with smallest AICc.

If d=0 then the constant c is included; if d≥1 then the constant c is set to zero. Variations on the current model are considered by varying p and/or q from the current model by ±1 and including/excluding c from the current model.

The best model considered so far (either the current model, or one of these variations) becomes the new current model.

Now, this process is repeated until no lower AIC can be found.

auto.arima(tsData, trace=TRUE) 

Forecasting using an ARIMA model

The parameters of that ARIMA model can be used as a predictive model for making forecasts for future values of the time series once the best-suited model is selected for time series data.

The d-value effects the prediction intervals —the prediction intervals increases in size with higher values of ‘d’. The prediction intervals will all be essentially the same when d=0 because the long-term forecast standard deviation will go to the standard deviation of the historical data.

There is a function called predict() which is used for predictions from the results of various model fitting functions. It takes an argument n.ahead() specifying how many time steps ahead to predict.

predict(fitARIMA,n.ahead = 5)

forecast.Arima() function in the forecast R package can also be used to forecast for future values of the time series. Here we can also specify the confidence level for prediction intervals by using the level argument.

futurVal <- forecast.Arima(fitARIMA,h=10, level=c(99.5))plot.forecast(futurVal)

We need to make sure that the forecast errors are not correlated, normally distributed with mean zero and constant variance. We can use the diagnostic measure to find out the appropriate model with best possible forecast values.

The forecasts are shown as a blue line, with the 80% prediction intervals as a dark shaded area, and the 95% prediction intervals as a light shaded area.

This is the overall process by which we can analyze time series data and forecast values from existing series using ARIMA.

Click here to get the entire code.


ARIMATime Series


How to create an ARIMA model for time series forecasting in R? ›

  1. Step 1 - Install required package. install.packages('forecast') ...
  2. Step 2 - Generate random time series data. # Get the data points in form of a R vector. ...
  3. Step 3 - Plot a data. plot(rain_ts,main = "Before prediction")
  4. Step 4 - Build a model using auto.arima() # Fitting model using auto.arima model. ...
  5. Step 5 - Make predictions.
Mar 22, 2023

What are the limitations of ARIMA model? ›

Potential cons of using ARIMA models

Computationally expensive. Poorer performance for long term forecasts. Cannot be used for seasonal time series. Less explainable than exponential smoothing.

How to interpret ARIMA model results? ›

Interpret the key results for ARIMA
  1. Step 1: Determine whether each term in the model is significant.
  2. Step 2: Determine how well the model fits the data.
  3. Step 3: Determine whether your model meets the assumptions of the analysis.

How many observations are required for ARIMA model? ›

The Box and Jenkins method typically recommends a minimum of 50 observations for an ARIMA model. This is recommended to cover seasonal variations and effects.

How to write ARIMA model equation in R? ›

Understanding constants in R. A non-seasonal ARIMA model can be written as (1−ϕ1B−⋯−ϕpBp)(1−B)dyt=c+(1+θ1B+⋯+θqBq)εt,(8.4) (8.4) ( 1 − ϕ 1 B − ⋯ − ϕ p B p ) ( 1 − B ) d y t = c + ( 1 + θ 1 B + ⋯ + θ q B q ) ε t , or equivalently as (1−ϕ1B−⋯−ϕpBp)(1−B)d(yt−μtd/d!)

How to analyse time series data in R? ›

The most useful way to view raw time series data in R is to use the print() command, which displays the Start , End , and Frequency of your data along with the observations. Another useful command for viewing time series data in R is the length() function, which tells you the total number of observations in your data.

When should you not use ARIMA? ›

Need of Explainability. If we need explainability in modelling we should not use the ARIMA model because its nature is not very explainable. In such situations, we can choose models like exponential smoothing, moving average (MA) etc.

What are the weaknesses of time series model? ›

Disadvantages of Time Series Analysis

It can suffer from generalization from a single study where more data points and models were warranted. Human error could misidentify the correct data model, which can have a snowballing effect on the output. It could also be difficult to obtain the appropriate data points.

Why ARIMA is better than linear regression? ›

ARIMA models are more flexible than other statistical models such as exponential smoothing or simple linear regression. Forecasting in general is really tough. In practice, really advanced models do well on in-sample forecasts but not so great out in the wild, as compared to more simpler models.

How to interpret ARIMA coefficients in R? ›

If the p-value is less than or equal to the significance level, you can conclude that the coefficient is statistically significant. If the p-value is greater than the significance level, you cannot conclude that the coefficient is statistically significant. You may want to refit the model without the term.

How to predict using ARIMA model? ›

It's time to see a real example.
  1. Step 0: Explore the dataset. ...
  2. Step 1: Check for stationarity of time series. ...
  3. Step 2: Determine ARIMA models parameters p, q. ...
  4. Step 3: Fit the ARIMA model. ...
  5. Step 4: Make time series predictions. ...
  6. Step 5: Evaluate model predictions.
Aug 25, 2022

What are ARIMA values in R? ›

Arima, in short term as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, is a group of models used in R programming language to describe a given time series based on the previously predicted values and focus on the future values. The Time series analysis is used to find the behavior of data over a time period.

How much data is enough for time series? ›

The length of time series can vary, but are generally at least 20 observations long, and many models require at least 50 observations for accurate estimation (McCleary et al., 1980, p. 20). More data is always preferable, but at the very least, a time series should be long enough to capture the phenomena of interest.

What are the basic assumptions of ARIMA model? ›

ARIMA Models for Nonstationary Time Series

4.1 The autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) class of models relies on the assumption that the underlying process is weakly stationary, which restricts the mean and variance to be constant and requires the autocovariances to depend only on the time lag.

What are the 3 components of ARIMA? ›

An ARIMA model has three component functions: AR (p), the number of lag observations or autoregressive terms in the model; I (d), the difference in the nonseasonal observations; and MA (q), the size of the moving average window.

What is the intercept of ARIMA in R? ›

arima() By default, the arima() command in R sets c = μ = 0 c=\mu=0 c=μ=0 when d > 0 d>0 d>0 and provides an estimate of μ when d = 0 d=0 d=0. The parameter μ is called the “intercept” in the R output.

What is the mathematical formula for ARIMA? ›

Φ(L)(1 − L)d Xt = µ + Θ(L)ϵt. The stochastic process defined by : Yt = ∆d Xt = (1 − L)d Xt is asymptotically equivalent to an ARMA(p,q) process. The autoregressive approximation (and not the AR(∞) representation) of a causal and minimal ARIMA(p,d,q) stochastic process is given by : At(L)Xt = µ0 + ϵt + h(t) Z−1.

What is the P value in the ARIMA model? ›

ARIMA models are typically expressed like “ARIMA(p,d,q)”, with the three terms p, d, and q defined as follows: p means the number of preceding (“lagged”) Y values that have to be added/subtracted to Y in the model, so as to make better predictions based on local periods of growth/decline in our data.

Is R good for time series analysis? ›

Yes, R has a lot of time series libraries — a lot of good work was done a while back by Rob Hyndman, including creating automatic ARIMA to make ARIMA available to anyone at the click of a button.

What is the best way to visualize time series data? ›

A line graph is the simplest way to represent time series data. It helps the viewer get a quick sense of how something has changed over time.

How do you do time series analysis step by step? ›

A time series analysis consists of two steps: (1) building a model that represents a time series (2) validating the model proposed (3) using the model to predict (forecast) future values and/or impute missing values.

Does ARIMA predict or forecast? ›

AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) is a time series forecasting model that incorporates autocorrelation measures to model temporal structures within the time series data to predict future values.

Why ARIMA is best for forecasting? ›

In my experience, ARIMA might be favored over other methods because of its flexibility. You can achieve far better results if you decompose your signal into simpler components and use simple linear models to forecast each time series and then combine them into one forecast.

Why ARIMA is better than LSTM? ›

Studies have shown that ARIMA needed at least 50 historical statistics [35]. LSTM model is a complex neural network, and like any neural network requires a large amount of data to be trained on properly. Too few training samples will lead to over fitting.

What is the main challenge in time series analysis? ›

The main challenge in making time series forecasts coincides with the first step of the process, research! Much of the existing research on time series models use very clean data.

What is the major problem of time series data? ›

The central point that differentiates time-series problems from most other statistical problems is that in a time series, observations are not mutually independent. Rather a single chance event may affect all later data points. This makes time-series analysis quite different from most other areas of statistics.

Which models are best for time series analysis? ›


AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are among the most widely used time series forecasting techniques: In an Autoregressive model, the forecasts correspond to a linear combination of past values of the variable.

How is ARIMA different from regression? ›

ARIMA tries to model the variable only with information about the past values of the same variable. Regression models on the other hand model the variable with the values of other variables. Since these approaches are different, it is natural then that models are not directly comparable.

What is better than ARIMA model? ›

The comparison of prediction results showed that the performance of multivariate LSTM model and DNN model is much better than that of traditional ARIMA model. Compared with the DNN model, the multivariate LSTM model performed better in the training set, showing lower RMES (42.30 vs. 380.96), MAE (29.53 vs.

What is the difference between regression and ARIMA? ›

A major difference between regression and ARIMA in terms of application is that regression deals with autocorrelation either in the error term by eliminating or factoring out such autocorrelation before estimates of relationships are made, whereas ARIMA models attempt to build in such autocorrelation -- where it exists ...

What are the parameters of ARIMA? ›

An ARIMA model is defined by its three order parameters, p, d, q. p specifies the number of Autoregressive terms in the model. d specifies the number of differentations applied on the time series values.

What is the interpretation of ARIMA 0 1 0? ›

Interpretation. The ARIMA(0,1,0) model is satisfactory. The ACF plot of the residuals shows one of the twenty residuals (or 0.05%) as significant. At a 95% confidence interval this is within probabilistic expectations.

What are the different types of ARIMA models? ›

Types of ARIMA Models

There are 2 types of ARIMA models: a) Non-Seasonal ARIMA models b) Seasonal ARIMA models.

Is ARIMA good for forecasting? ›

ARIMA models are a popular and powerful tool for forecasting time series data, such as sales, prices, or weather. ARIMA stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average, and it captures the patterns, trends, and seasonality of the data using a combination of past values, differences, and errors.

What are the advantages of ARIMA? ›

Another advantage of ARIMA family models is that they are highly flexible. This means that they can be adapted to model many different types of time series. This is useful if you want to set up a process that models many different time series using a single type of model.

What are the accuracy metrics for ARIMA? ›

There are three primary metrics used to evaluate linear models. These are: Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean squared error (MSE), or Root mean squared error (RMSE). MSE: Similar to MAE but noise is exaggerated and larger errors are “punished”.

What is the difference between Arma and Arima in R? ›

The difference between ARMA and ARIMA is the integration part. The integrated I stands for the number of times differencing is needed to make the times series stationary. ARIMA models are widely used for real life time series analysis since most times series data are non stationary and need differencing.

How do you know if you have enough data for your model? ›

The most common way to define whether a data set is sufficient is to apply a 10 times rule. This rule means that the amount of input data (i.e., the number of examples) should be ten times more than the number of degrees of freedom a model has.

What is the minimum data for Arima? ›

For autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, the rule of thumb is that you should have at least 50 but preferably more than 100 observations (Box and Tiao 1975).

How much data does it take to watch a 30 minute show? ›

If you are watching a 30-minute show, you can expect to use 1 GB of data. If you are watching a 60-minute show, you can expect to use 2 GB of data. And if you are watching a 90-minute show, you can expect to use 3 GB of data. The number of devices you are using is going to have a small impact on how much data you use.

What is the weakness of ARIMA model? ›

Potential cons of using ARIMA models

Difficult to predict turning points. There is quite a bit of subjectivity involved in determining (p,d,q) order of the model. Computationally expensive. Poorer performance for long term forecasts.

What are the three stages of ARIMA model development? ›

These are model identification, model estimation and validation, and model application.

Does ARIMA model need stationarity? ›

Non-stationarity, as discussed for independent data, can take any form. No fixed norms are present which can model non-stationary data like there exists ARIMA, AR, MA, or any other model for stationary data.

How to fit an ARIMA model in R? ›

  1. Step 1 - Install required package. install.packages('forecast') ...
  2. Step 2 - Generate random time series data. # Get the data points in form of a R vector. ...
  3. Step 3 - Plot a data. plot(rain_ts,main = "Before prediction")
  4. Step 4 - Build a model using auto.arima() # Fitting model using auto.arima model. ...
  5. Step 5 - Make predictions.
Mar 22, 2023

What is the ARIMA model for time series data? ›

An autoregressive integrated moving average, or ARIMA, is a statistical analysis model that uses time series data to either better understand the data set or to predict future trends. A statistical model is autoregressive if it predicts future values based on past values.

How to convert a data set to a time series in R? ›

The ts() function will convert a numeric vector into an R time series object. The format is ts(vector, start=, end=, frequency=) where start and end are the times of the first and last observation and frequency is the number of observations per unit time (1=annual, 4=quartly, 12=monthly, etc.).

What is the difference between ARIMA and Sarima in R? ›

ARIMA takes into account the past values (autoregressive, moving average) and predicts future values based on that. SARIMA similarly uses past values but also takes into account any seasonality patterns.

How do you model a time series through a Sarima model? ›

Summarising, you should follow the following steps:
  1. convert your data frame into a time series.
  2. calculate the values of p, d and q to tune the SARIMA model.
  3. build the SARIMA model with the calculated p, d and q values.
  4. test the performance of the model.
Sep 9, 2020

What is ARIMA Time series analysis in R? ›

Arima, in short term as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, is a group of models used in R programming language to describe a given time series based on the previously predicted values and focus on the future values. The Time series analysis is used to find the behavior of data over a time period.

How to forecast data using ARIMA model? ›

Steps to Use ARIMA Model
  1. Visualize the Time Series Data. ...
  2. Identify if the date is stationary. ...
  3. Plot the Correlation and Auto Correlation Charts. ...
  4. Construct the ARIMA Model or Seasonal ARIMA based on the data.
Oct 29, 2020

What is an example of a time series in R? ›

Time series is a series of data points in which each data point is associated with a timestamp. A simple example is the price of a stock in the stock market at different points of time on a given day. Another example is the amount of rainfall in a region at different months of the year.

How to cluster time series data in R? ›

For time series clustering with R, the first step is to work out an appropriate distance/similarity metric, and then, at the second step, use existing clustering techniques, such as k-means, hierarchical clustering, density-based clustering or subspace clustering, to find clustering structures.

How to remove seasonality from time series data in R? ›

We can remove seasonality in the data using differencing, which calculates the difference between the current value and its value in the previous season. The reason this is done is to make the time series stationary rendering its statistical properties constant through time.

Why ARIMA is best in time series? ›

ARIMA models are a popular and powerful tool for forecasting time series data, such as sales, prices, or weather. ARIMA stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average, and it captures the patterns, trends, and seasonality of the data using a combination of past values, differences, and errors.

Can ARIMA handle seasonality? ›

A seasonal ARIMA model uses differencing at a lag equal to the number of seasons (s) to remove additive seasonal effects. As with lag 1 differencing to remove a trend, the lag s differencing introduces a moving average term. The seasonal ARIMA model includes autoregressive and moving average terms at lag s.

Is ARIMA univariate or multivariate? ›

The ARIMA model will use the single time-dependent (univariate) variable in the time series to make predictions. ARIMA models only work when the time series is stationary.

How do I choose between ARIMA and SARIMA? ›

The difference between ARIMA and SARIMA (SARIMAX) is about the seasonality of the dataset. if your data is seasonal, like it happen after a certain period of time. then we will use SARIMA.


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